UK student numbers ’set to fall’
Numbers of UK undergraduates are expected to fall over the next decade, a study suggests.
A report for Universities UK - the umbrella body for university leaders - says there will be a fall in the numbers of 18 to 20-year-olds.
The overall decline equates to 70,000 full-time undergraduate places over the next 10 years, the authors say.
Other figures show a continued rise in overseas students at UK universities - particularly those from India.
In the period from 2005/6 to 2006/7, there was a 7% rise in the number of students from non-EU countries studying in the UK.
Total numbers of non-EU students rose from 223,855 to 239,210, according to figures released by the Higher Education Statistics Agency.
The number of university students from India rose by 24% from 19,205 to 23,835 over that time.
Polish students
China remains the source of the highest number of non-UK higher education students, although numbers fell by 2% from 50,755 in 2005/06 to 49,595 in 2006/07.
Over the same time period, the number of university students from EU countries rose by 6%, from 106,225 to 112,260.
The biggest increase was among Polish students, whose number rose by 56% from 4,325 in 2005/06 to 6,770 in 2006/07.
The number of students from Lithuania and Latvia also increased dramatically - by 53% and 64% respectively.
The largest group of students from another EU country studying in the UK is from the Irish Republic. Numbers dipped slightly though, falling 3% from 16,790 to 16,255.
Poorer backgrounds
The report for Universities UK looks at demographic trends which could influence higher education.
The authors say the number of non-EU students at all levels of study is expected to increase by 4% by 2026/27.
In the next 10 years there could be a “moderate” fall in the numbers of 18 to 20-year-olds across the UK, the authors say.
However, that will be reversed by 2027, they say, with a 2.1% projected increase in student numbers in the UK.
Demand for higher education is expected to increase as more teenagers from poorer backgrounds stay on at school and do better at GCSE level, the report says.
There will also be some compensating increases in part-time undergraduate numbers in all parts of the UK apart from Scotland, it says.
Professor Rick Trainor, president of Universities UK, said: “This is an invaluable piece of work which should help the UK higher education sector prepare for some of the expected demographic changes between now and 2019.
“The work will also form part of Universities UK’s preparation for the review of variable fees in England, due next year. The review will need to take into account the wider issues facing higher education, some of which are reflected in this report.”
bbc.co.uk
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